Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
